Saturday, October 24, 2020

Writing the History of Trump

 UNLESS DONALD TRUMP secures sufficient last minute assistance from Russia, is able to convince several million Americans that one thousand daily deaths and eighty thousand daily infections are signs of a vanishing virus, is able to muster a large enough army of white supremacists to intimidate voters online and at the polls into voting for him, and can benefit substantially from ongoing republican efforts to suppress the voted by making it difficult for poor people, Hispanics, and African-Americans to vote, he may lose the election. Every indication is that Biden will win the election in a landslide, and our modern polling methods render such indications both relevant and accurate, despite what many people say and believe to the contrary. it is becoming evident, however, that Trump and his minions truly believe that they will win, above and beyond simple denial of reality. They're undoubtedly remembering Trump's unlikely electoral college victory in twenty sixteen over Hillary. They seemingly are overlooking fundamental differences between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Trump is running on a four year record, not mere bombast, anger, and promises.There are four years fewer old voters, and four years more young voters.Trump has not expanded his base; if anything, it has shrunk. The Black Lives Matter movement andCovid 19 and Trump's response to them may have pleased his base, but have alienated most Americans. both sides expect victory, and whichever side loses will erupt in protest, accusations, and lawsuits. If Trump loses, large or small, he and his gang will cry foul, because the margin of loss was too large, or too small. If Biden loses another Hillary Clinton type electoral college and popular vote victory the streets will fill with Democrats, and you can expect to find me there among them. It won't take historians long to begin chronicling and evaluating the Trump administration, and the process will continue for hundreds of years, improving over time. History written immediately after the fact has primary source value, and history written long after the history was made builds upon the primary source history as a foundation and, with perspective, improves upon the early history. The best biographies of Lincoln and Jefferson, for example, of the hundreds which have been written, have been written since the year two thousand. The best history of Trump will appear far in the future, long after we the living are dead, by historians not yet born. The early histories are starting to come out, and will never stop coming. So it goes for all world leaders. The historical profession is always the best source for history, and it will tell the truth about Trump, the unflattering, sordid truth, and the MAGA minions won't be around to white wash and lie about it. As for now, they can only ignore it, as they always ignore reality, or, they can cal it a conspiracy,  as if a book written by a single historian can possible come from a conspiracy of one.

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