Being Lucky, Standing In Line, Feeling Cheated

THE NOBEL PRIZE was established in 1895 by alfred Nobel as self imposed penance for his invention of dynamite, which he felt was a great disservice to the world. It wasn't, though. Sometimes guilt trips can yield positive results, it seems. He might've thought differently had he been around to see the interstate highway system in the United States, with all its marvelous bridges, tunnels, overpasses, tunnels through mountains, but Nobel died one year after establishing the prizes. We forgive you, Mr. Nobel. Had you not invented dynamite, somebody else would have, and soon. The physics, chemistry, literature, and peace prizes began immediately, but the economics prize was created in the nineteen sixties by a Swedish bank to honor Nobel, to draw more attention to the nobility of the banking industry, and to update the prize categories to keep pace with the modern fact that economics is now a highly complex science, with "discoveries" being made every year. Over the past couple of decades Americans have been winning Nobel prizes at an impressive rate, and this year's economic award goes to three American economists, all of whom are over the age of sixty, one from Yale University, two from the University of Chicago. According to the three winners, it is not wise to be a small investor in the stock market, especially for short periods of time. They have the facts and figures to back up this unsurprising assertion. If you invest a small amount of money in the market, and leave it there less than three years, you're gonna lose money, unless you are quite lucky. Longer than three years, trends can be predicted. Less than that,you're rolling the dice. The market is illogical, unpredictable, and subject to the vagaries of human collective emotion, say the three academicians. We might have already known all this; now it is set in stone. Don't I know it. When facebook stock entered the market, the price was set at thirty eight dollars per share. I thought I was first in line, since I bought my facebook stock, a very small amount of it, immediately upon the opening bell of Initial Public Offering day. Flushed with excitement, the market sent the price up immediately, into the forties - then, when the initial glow had worn off, it crashed into the twenties, and remained there for many dreary , disappointing months. I found out that I had paid forty two for mine, instead of the thirty eight I anticipated. I said to my broker "what gives? Do poor people, small investors, stand in line behind the wealthy and powerful in stock transactions on I.P.O. day? He emailed me back "yes". I have wondered ever since whether his response would have been lengthier had I been a wealthy powerful investor. but not to worry, justice prevailed. T he lates surge in the stock market, into higher territory than ever before, has sent fadcebook stock up above fifty a share, and even I poor I , the fool, have made a bit of money. I sold half of mine at fifty, and am eager to unload the rest. No long term investment for me; I want mine, and I want it now. I thanks the powers that be that facebook decided, finally, to inundate its website with advertising. Revenue is up, corporate finances are up, the stock price is up, Mark Zuckerberbeg is wealthier than ever, and I lived another day to pay the rent and buy groceries. Just think how happy the rich people must be, whose who got in line ahead of me due to their superior importance, paid only thirty eight a share, and held on. So I was lucky, it turns out. I invested a small amount of money in the market, left it there less than three years, and still came out ahead. I must now, however, abandon my belief that I am a financial genius, and accept the uninspiring truth that I was merely lucky, because I am told so by people who won a prize set up by the inventor of dynamite. I still think I was ripped off.