Saturday, September 1, 2012

Figuring Out Causal Connections

RECORD weekend murder spree in chicago. National epidemic of random gun violence. Polar ice cap smaller than ever. Polls indicate most americans believe wealthy are undertaxed.

What, if anything, do these three phenomena have in common?  How are they connected, assuming that they are, in any way, shape, or form?  We are often told that, ultimately, everything is related.

A butterfly flaps its wings in a tropical rain forest, this awakens a snake which startles a water buffalo which starts a stampede, which kicks up dust  which travels through the air collecting moisture, one thing keeps leading to another, and eventually  half a world away a hurricane generates a massive tsunami, which inundates and destroys whole cities.

Extreme though this seems, it reminds us that, if nothing else, matter and energy are intertwined, all events are caused by something, the world behaves the way it does because of an infinitely complicated web of causes and effects, connections.

Therefore, random gun violence in america, polar ice cap melting, and opinion polls concerning taxation are most probably related; they all have many causes, and many causes in common.

Let us for the sake of simplicity assert that these seemingly unrelated facts have in common that they were noticed by, and perhaps even caused by, human activity, if nothing else. It is a start towards understanding.

What if we suggest that economic systems widely used by humans tend to create a great deal of resentment between people, which leads to violence, and  melts ice. Or, something like that.

You have to start somewhere.

Bb

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