Running Out Of Luck

THERE'S THE FAMOUS STORY of the Russian colonel who saved the world by guessing, correctly, that what his computer told him was an incoming nuclear armed American intercontinental ballistic missile was actually a mere computer glitch, somehow using his intuition, and getting lucky. This was in the nineteen eighties, when computer guided missile systems were far less reliable, and somehow, the Russian colonel sensed that, base on what he understood to be the state of affairs between Ronald Reagan and Michael Gorbachev, the United States would not be attacking. frighteningly, computer guided missile launch systems, though much improved, are still not perfect, not beyond the capacity for tragic miscalculation and fatal error. His failure to report the incident to his superiors as an actual attack spared the world untold nightmarish consequences, probably cities in ruins and tens of millions of innocent dead. His superiors were grateful, and as the years went by and the story got out, many ore people became grateful. The heroic colonel died just a couple of years ago, and he retained a humble attitude about his service to humanity to the very end of his life. He remains largely ignored, a mere footnote in world history, yet, much appreciated by those who know. Since the nineteen eighties, nuclear missile treaties between the United States and Russia have created a sufficient level of transparency and a sufficiently limited bomb and missile capability on both sides as to greatly enhance our chances of continuing to avoid nuclear holocaust, by accident or design. We have maintained agreements on the number of bombs each nation may maintain, the number of missiles each nation may keep operative, and how large and how far their respective missiles can travel, and where they can be positioned. The regimen has worked well, but now there is the distinct possibility that it will all unravel, and the at the U.s.an Russia will return to the bad old days of unrestricted bomb and missile building and deployment, and the arms race will resume, unmitigated by any formal treaty. Those of a certain age will not so fondly recall when both nations were testing atomic bombs below ground, above ground, in the air, and at various and sundry locations worldwide, while building bombs and missiles at a prodigious rate, each nation stockpiling tens of thousand so ready to use atomic bombs, all the while railing at each other and trading accusations on an almost daily basis. the situation has been so much better for so long that the younger generation can scarcely imagine a world in which American school children were routinely ducking beneath their school desks at school, practicing the fine art of bomb and missile dodging. Now, the bad old days might will return. Both Obama and Trump accused Putin of cheating on the medium range missile treaty, and now Trump has withdrawn the United States from the treaty altogether. Putin, a dangerous dictator remindful of Soviet cold war tyrants, denies the accusations, even as he uses aggression to expand Russian hegemony in what is an apparent intent of reconstituting the old soviet Union. By withdrawing from the treaty Trump is forfeiting all opportunity for the United states to influence Russian behavior. It would be better to work from within than from the outside, as Obama realized. now, Putin has a blank check to use in whatever devious manner he chooses. We can only hope that he thinks carefully before cashing it.